آینده افزایش قیمت نفت و توسعه و گسترش سوخت های زیستی
در گزارش World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5673 با عنوان World Oil Price and Biofuels ارتباط افزایش قیمت نفت در چند سال آینده و توسعه تولید سوخت زیستی و سر آخر علت توقف توسعه آن ارائه شده است. اصل گزارش 29 صفحه ای از لینک بالا قابل دسترس می باشد . خلاصه گزارش هم عبارتست از:
How Higher Oil Prices Could Affect Biofuel Expansion
Oil prices could be an important factor in the effort to expand biofuel use around the world, but little is known about how the two factors interact with each other. In a recent working paper, Govinda Timilsina, Simon Mevel, and Ashish Shrestha fill that gap by running a simulation model showing how oil prices could affect biofuels and the food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil prices from 2009 to 2020 would boost biofuels' share of the global transportation fuel mix to 5.4 percent in 2020, up from 2.4 percent in 2009. By comparison, in 2020, if oil prices rise to 2.3 times their 2009 level, it would boost the global biofuel penetration to 12.6 percent in 2020. The increase in oil prices would reduce the global food supply, because energy costs would go up and land for crops and food commodities would be converted to producing biofuel feed stocks. But in major biofuel-producing countries, the drop in total agricultural output would be small, because a biofuel expansion would encourage higher agricultural input, thereby partially offsetting losses caused by higher oil prices.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5673