100 سوال کلیدی در مورد آینده کشاورزی جهان
ژورنال بین المللی پایداری کشاورزی International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability در شماره نوامبر 2010 ( International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Volume 8, Number 4, 2010 , pp. 219-236(18)) خود که مقاله ای منتشر کرد که در آن 55 کارشناس زبده سوالاتی را مطرح نمودند که آینده کشاورزی جهان در گرو پاسخ به آن هاست. در بین این 55 نفر نام آقای دکتر پرویز کوه افکن معاون آّب و خاک فائو هم به چشم می خورد.
این سوالات در 4 بخش دسته بندی شده اند که عبارتند از:
1- نهاده های منابع طبیعی
2- شیوه های زراعی
3- توسعه کشاورزی
4- بازار و مصرف کالاهای کشاورزی
توصیه می کنم دوستان این مقاله را مطالعه کنند. سوالات با دیدی انتقادی به وضع موجود و چالش های پیش رو مباحث را پیگیری نموده اند. در اینجا سوالات را به همان زبان انگلیسی ارائه نموده ام.
Section 1: Natural resource inputs
Climate, watersheds, water resources and aquatic ecosystems
1. What are the predicted critical impacts of climate change (e.g. changes in temperature, wind speed, humidity and water availability, storm intensity, crop water requirements, snowmelt and seasonal runoff, pests, waterlogging, agroecosystem shifts, human migration) on agricultural yields, cropping practices, crop disease spread, disease resistance and irrigation development?
2. What would be the global cost of capping agricultural water withdrawals if environmental reserves were to be maintained?
3. What is the effect of increased rainwater harvesting on local hydrological fluxes, and how do local changes combine and alter water resource availability at larger geographic scales?
4. How can aquaculture and open water farming be developed so that impacts on wild fish stocks and coastal and aquatic habitats are minimized?
5. What approaches (operational, agronomic, genetic, supplemental irrigation schemes, fertility management, winter rainfall storage) can be developed to increase water use efficiency in agriculture and what is the cost-effectiveness of these approaches?
6. What combinations of forestry, agroforestry, grass cover, water-collecting systems and storage facilities, drought-resistant crops and water-saving technology are needed in arid and semi-arid areas to increase food production, and to what extent can they become cost-effective?
7. How can the allocation of water be optimized between irrigated agriculture and environmental functions, and what innovative policies and technologies can minimize trade-offs between irrigation and healthy functions of natural ecosystems?
Soil nutrition, erosion and use of fertilizer
8. What benefits can sustainable soil management deliver for both agricultural production and delivery of other ecosystem services?
9. What are the best uses of organic amendments by subsistence farmers in cropping systems to improve soil nutrients and water-holding capacities and thereby assist in restoring agroecosystems?
10. What are the most practical and economic methods for managing soil fertility in paddy soils and upland production systems in the tropics?
11. What guidelines can be established for poor small-scale farmers to ensure that nitrogen fertilization is managed in a way that results in net accretion of soil organic carbon rather than net mineralization?
12. How can salinization be prevented and remedied?
13. How can native soil organisms be exploited to maximize food productivity and minimize environmental impacts?
14. What are the world’s mobilizable stocks and reserves of phosphate, and are they sufficient to support adequate levels of food production globally for the next century?
Biodiversity, ecosystem services and conservation
15. What is the relationship between productivity and biodiversity (and/or other ecosystem services) and how does this vary between agricultural systems and as a function of the spatial scale at which land is devoted mostly to food production?
16. How should the options of intensification, extensification, habitat restoration or the status quo be chosen and how can we best combine measures of economic, environmental and social benefit to make the choice?
17. What are the environmental consequences of drought-resistant crops in different locations?
18. What are the consequences for biodiversity conservation and delivery of other ecosystem services if crop and livestock management is driven by the objectives of greenhouse gas emission reduction?
19. In intensive production systems, are agrienvironment measures best deployed to buffer protected areas and areas of pristine or seminatural habitat, or to ‘soften the matrix’ between patches of these habitats?
20. Where would natural habitat restoration provide the greatest food and environmental benefits to society?
21. What type and specific combinations of improved technologies, farming practices, institutions and policies will result in the maintenance of ecosystem services, including soil fertility, in agricultural systems undergoing intensification in developing countries, in particular in sub- Saharan Africa?
22. Can payments for ecosystem services (e.g. carbon sequestration, green water credits, biodiversity enrichment) lead to adoption of recommended land-use and management practices by resource-poor farmers in developing countries?
Energy, climate change and resilience
23. What are the best options for agriculture increasing food production while simultaneously reducing its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions?
24. What will be the risk of mass migration arising from adverse climate change, and how will this impact on agricultural systems?
25. Given the high current direct and indirect energy inputs into agriculture, how can food production be made carbon neutral to allow emission targets to be met over the next 40 years?
26. How would different market mechanisms of payment for greenhouse gas reduction and carbon storage in agriculture affect farming and how could these best be implemented?
27. How can competing demands on land for production of food and energy best be balanced to ensure the provision of ecosystem services while maintaining adequate yields and prices?
28. How can the resilience of agricultural systems be improved to both gradual climate change and increased climatic variability and extremes?
29. What is the appropriate mix of intensification and extensification required to deliver increased production, greenhouse gas reduction and increased ecosystem services?
30. How can crop breeding, new technologies, the use of traditional crops and improved agronomic practice be balanced to increase food production and enhance resilience to future climate change?
31. How can the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a carbohydrate-based economy best be made using biorefineries to process agricultural products to provide high-value products, biomaterials, energy and soil improvers, in addition to the food products currently produced?
32. How can long-term carbon sinks best be created on farms (e.g. by soil management practices, perennial crops, trees, ponds, biochar)?
33. How can the inclusion of agriculture in carbon markets provide significant benefits for farmers?
Section 2: Agronomic practice
Crop production systems and technologies
34. What are the benefits and risks of embracing the different types of agricultural biotechnology (environmental impacts; sensitivity/resistance to environmental stressors such as heat, drought, salinity; dependence on/independence from inputs; risks of accelerated resistance; food safety, human health and nutrition; economic, social and cultural impacts)?
35. What are the advantages and disadvantages of organic production systems in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, yield and human health, particularly in resource-poor developing countries?
36. What practical measures are needed to lower the ideological barriers between organic and GM, and thus fully exploit the combined potential of both GM crops and organic modes of production in order to achieve agroecological management practices compatible with the sustainable intensification of food production?
37. What is the long-term capacity of fossil fuels and nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer stocks to support intensive production systems globally?
38. How can food production systems that reduce dependence on externally derived nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium resources be designed?
39. How can we develop agreed metrics to monitor progress towards sustainability in different agricultural systems that are appropriate for, and acceptable to, different agroecological, social, economic and political contexts?
40. What part can reclamation, restoration and rehabilitation of degraded land play in increasing global food production?
41. What are the best integrated cropping and mixed system options (including fallow rotations and other indigenous cropping systems for cereals, tubers and other staples, agroforestry, croplivestock and crop-aquaculture systems) for different agroecological and socioeconomic situations, taking account of climate and market risk, farm household assets and farmers’ circumstances?
Crop genetic improvement
42. What are the gains in resource use efficiency that could be achieved by crop genetic improvement for resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses?
43. What improvements to crop varieties can be made to ensure that emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture and horticulture are significantly reduced?
44. What is the comparative effectiveness of different genetic approaches to the development of crops with tolerance of abiotic stresses such as frost, heat, drought, waterlogging, acid infertility and salinity?
45. What is the efficiency of different ways to genetically improve the nutrient-use efficiency of crops and simultaneously increase yield?
46. What impact can crop genetic improvement have on levels of micronutrients available to humans, livestock and fish?
Pest and disease management
47. What evidence exists to indicate that climate change will change pest and disease incidence?
48. How can insecticide application in agriculture be modified to lessen the evolution of pesticide resistance in mosquitoes and other major vectors of human disease?
49. How can landscape-level interventions help pest management and which approaches are the most economically and socially sustainable?
50. How can perennial-based farming systems include cover crops as a pest management method and what are the economic and noneconomic costs and benefits?
51. How can intensive livestock systems be designed to minimize the spread of infectious diseases among animals and the risk of the emergence of new diseases infecting humans?
52. How can increasing both crop and non-crop biodiversity help in pest and disease management?
53. How can middle and small-scale animal production be made suitable for developing
countries in terms of environmental impact, economic return and human food supply and what should be the key government policies to ensure that a balance between the two is implemented?
54. What are the priority efficiency targets for livestock production systems (e.g. the appropriate mix of activities in different systems, the optimal numbers and types of animals) that would enable these systems to meet the demand for livestock products in an environmentally sound, economically sustainable and socially responsible way?
55. What are the effective and efficient policies and other interventions to reduce the demand for animal products in societies with high consumption levels and how will they affect global trade in livestock products and the competitiveness of smallholder livestock production systems in poor countries?
56. In addition to livestock production, how can inland and coastal fish farming contribute to a more sustainable mode of animal protein production in developing countries?
57. What are the best means to encourage the economic growth of regional livestock markets, while limiting the effects of global climate change, and what can industrialized countries do to improve the carbon footprint of its livestock sector?
58. What are the environmental impacts of different kinds of livestock-rearing and aquaculture systems?
Section 3: Agricultural development
Social capital, gender and extension
59. As agriculture is highly knowledge intensive and institutionally determined, what is the effectiveness of different novel extension strategies and how best can they be set up to facilitate institutional change and technical innovation with the aim of ensuring that the widest number of farmers are reached and engaged?
60. How much can agricultural education, extension, farmer mobilization and empowerment be achieved by the new opportunities afforded by mobile phone and web-based technologies?
61. Which models and mechanisms for private sector funding or co-financing of extension advisory systems have most successfully reached farmers otherwise excluded from public sector extension services?
62. What are the most effective approaches for retaining women in research and extension systems and ensuring that they are fully involved in the design of research and extension systems to meet both gender-specific and wider needs?
63. What are the best social learning and multistakeholder models (e.g. farmers field schools) to bring together farmers, researchers, advisors, commercial enterprises, policy makers and other key actors to develop better technologies and institutions, for a more equitable, sustainable and innovative agriculture?
Development and livelihoods
64. What is the impact of agricultural subsidies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries on the welfare of farmers in developing countries?
65. What systematic approaches can be used to identify and adapt technical options for increasing land and water productivity of rainfed crop and livestock systems so that they contribute to poverty reduction in different agroecological and socioeconomic situations?
66. What are the society-wide trade-offs among efficiency, social equity and environmental outcomes for agricultural development in societies with large rural and smallholder populations?
67. What are the best options to improve the sustainable intensification of agriculture?
68. How can the transition from today’s smallholderbased agriculture to sustainable agricultural intensification occur in ways that maintain livelihoods for smallholder farmers?
69. What are the long-term impacts of international donors and aid enterprises on target beneficiaries in terms of food security, environmental sustainability, local economies and social inclusion?
70. How can interdisciplinary frameworks integrating scientific innovation and multi-stakeholder perspectives be designed and effectively applied to farming systems within developing countries?
71. Under what environmental and institutional conditions will increasing agrobiodiversity at farm and landscape scales result in increased livelihood opportunities and income?
72. Who will be farming in 2050, and what will be their land relationships (farm ownership, rental or management)?
Governance, economic investment, power and policy making
73. What will be the consequences to low-income countries of the increased political roles of countries with growing economic and purchasing power (e.g.Brazil,China,India,Indonesia) in global food systems?
74. What is the effectiveness of various aid delivery models for multi- and bilateral donors for increasing the well-being and productivity of smallholder farmers in poorer developing countries?
75. Under what circumstances do investments in smallholder agriculture compared with larger and more mechanized farms achieve the greatest societal and environmental good?
76. What are the consequences of different mixes of public to private investment in irrigation infrastructure?
77. What are the consequences of different choices of investments in the resilience of agricultural systems to address the multifaceted adverse effects of climate change?
78. What steps need to be taken to encourage young people to study agricultural science?
Section 4: Markets and consumption
Food supply chains
79. Howmight a unified sustainable food standard be developed and implemented across trading blocs, such as European Union or North American Free Trade Agreement, to serve environmental, health (nutrition), food quality and social values, and how could this be effectively communicated to shape food purchasing behaviour?
80. Where is food waste greatest in food chains in industrialized and developing countries and what measures can be taken significantly to reduce these levels of food waste?
81. What is the best way to make food chains more resilient to exogenous trends (e.g. the upward price of hydrocarbons) and shocks (e.g. disruption to air freight)?
82. What is the potential contribution of localized food production to the overall sustainability of food systems?
83. How might appropriate limits be established on national per capita levels of meat consumption, while recognizing projected demographic and economic growth, given the aggregate impact of global livestock numbers particularly in relation to feed requirements and waste streams?
84. What are the best indicators that could be used to define agricultural sustainability thresholds (e.g. soil condition, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, energy use, key biological processes such as pollination) and how might these be communicated through the food chain?
85. What are the best institutional mechanisms to manage food stocks, storage, distribution and entitlement systems to ensure continued and sustainable supplies of food?
86. How can we expand the range and commercial development of food plants (given calorie dependence on the seven key crops of wheat, rice, maize, potatoes, soya, sugar cane and sugar beet) in order to enhance resilience in food chains while retaining genetic diversity in crops and their wild relatives?
87. How much land in agricultural regions should be left as natural habitats to provide ecosystem services and mitigate climate change threats?
Prices, markets and trade
88. What priority investments are needed to develop effective input and output markets in the poorest developing countries (especially sub-SaharanAfrica)?
89. As energy prices rise, how can agriculture increase its efficiency and use fewer inputs and fertilizers to become economically sustainable and environmentally sensitive, yet still feed a growing population?
90. What mechanisms can be devised to buffer against growing market volatility and subsequent risk for farmers and under which conditions do different mechanisms work best?
91. How can market-based food supply systems be developed that offer economically sustainable levels of financial reward to all participants in the food chain (i.e. farmers, processors and retailers) while simultaneously providing safe, nutritious, natural resource-stewarding and affordable food to consumers?
92. What mechanisms will provide incentives for further investment in sustainable, high-yielding agriculture that also maintains ecosystem services?
93. What mechanisms for institutional capacity can be used to create an efficient and equitable global marketing system so that food is produced in an economic and ecologically efficient manner and traded appropriately to achieve food security?
94. How can national food security policies be designed to be more compatible with worldwide open market food policies while securing the interests of local farmers and equitable access to food?
Consumption patterns and health
95. How will predicted changes in meat consumption across different countries affect demand for the range of agricultural produce?
96. What information is most useful to consumers wishing to make informed decisions about the environmental and social impacts of their food choices and can intervention methods be developed that encourage and provide incentives to all consumers to eat healthy diets?
97. Under which conditions can governmental health policy successfully affect consumers’ diets by promoting good food as preventative medicine?
98. What programmes (or combinations) are most effective in promoting broad-based access to healthy food across different socioeconomic groups?
99. How effective are experiential learning programmes (e.g. garden-based learning, wilderness therapy, forest schools, outdoor learning) in promoting child nutrition, healthy child development, and prevention of obesity and diabetes?
100. What is the effectiveness of different systems aimed at enabling informed consumer choice to directly reward farmers and thereby encouraging the spread of positive environmental attributes in food production (e.g. direct distribution networks organized by farmers, labelling schemes on food, information on farm websites)?